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India - To Become Top Emerging Economy in 2019 -2020.

Updated: Jan 22, 2019

United Nations, Jan 21 The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) World Economic Outlook Update released by chief economist Gita Gopinath on Monday.


A Weakening Global Expansion

• The global expansion has weakened. Global growth for 2018 is estimated at 3.7 percent, as in the October 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, despite weaker performance in some economies, notably Europe and Asia. The global economy is projected to grow at 3.5 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020, 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point below last October’s projections.


• The global growth forecast for 2019 and 2020 had already been revised downward in the last WEO, partly because of the negative effects of tariff increases enacted in the United States and China earlier that year.


Financial conditions in emerging markets have tightened modestly since the fall, with notable differentiation based on country-specific factors. Emerging market equity indices have sold off over this period, in a context of rising trade tensions and higher risk aversion. Concerns about inflationary effects from earlier oil price increases and, in some cases, closing output gaps or passthrough from currency depreciation have led central banks in many emerging market economies to raise policy rates since the fall.


By contrast, central banks in China and India maintained policy rates on hold and acted to ease domestic funding conditions (by lowering reserve requirements for banks and providing liquidity to non-bank financial companies, respectively).


As of early January, the US dollar remains broadly unchanged in real effective terms relative to September, the euro has weakened by about 2 percent amid slower growth and concerns about Italy, and the pound has depreciated about 2 percent as Brexit-related uncertainty increased. In contrast, the Japanese yen has appreciated by about 3 percent, on higher risk aversion. Several emerging market currencies the Indian rupee, and the Indonesian rupiah—have staged recoveries from their 2018 valuation lows last August-September.


Despite fiscal stimulus that offsets some of the impact of higher US tariffs, China’s economy will slow due to the combined influence of needed financial regulatory tightening and trade tensions with the United States. India’s economy is poised to pick up in 2019, benefiting from lower oil prices and a slower pace of monetary tightening than previously expected, as inflation pressures ease.


India’s Economy is on the higher side compared to China. As per IMF Estimates, India Growth Rate Would be 7.5 & 7.7 for 2019 and 2020 respectively.


Note: For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and GDP from 2011 onward is based on GDP at market prices with FY2011/12 as a base year. As Reported by IMF

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